Latin America Ecommerce Forecast 2021

Executive Summary

While 2020 will go down in history as one of the most tumultuous years for Latin America’s retail industry, it will also be remembered as the year when the region became the world’s fastest-growing retail ecommerce market.

How did the coronavirus pandemic impact total retail sales in Latin America?

Physical store closures, coupled with government-mandated lockdowns, hurt retailers’ bottom lines last year. This year, retail sales will return to growth in each of the countries we forecast.

Why was 2020 a watershed year for retail ecommerce in Latin America?

Until the pandemic, retail ecommerce was still in the early stages of consumer adoption. But in 2020, as retailers and consumers quickly pivoted toward ecommerce, sales soared 63.3% and surpassed the $100 billion mark for the first time.

How much are consumers in Latin America prioritizing mcommerce?

From 2016 to 2019, mobile’s share of retail ecommerce sales in Latin America nearly doubled from 20.9% to 40.2%. This year, we forecast that nearly half (48.8%) of retail ecommerce sales will take place on mobile devices.

How did the pandemic accelerate digital buyer growth in Latin America?

2020 was a record-setting year for digital buyer growth in the region. We forecast that 38.0 million consumers in Latin America were first-time digital buyers in 2020. This year, total digital buyers will rise to 248.7 million, or nearly half the region’s population ages 14 and older.

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report features our latest forecasts for total retail, ecommerce, and mcommerce sales in Latin America, with breakouts for Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. It also examines key drivers fueling regional market movements in 2021 and beyond.

KEY STAT: Retail ecommerce sales in Latin America grew 63.3% in 2020 to $104.60 billion. This was five times greater than the 12.5% growth we estimated in our pre-pandemic November 2019 forecast and more than triple the 19.4% estimated growth in our May 2020 forecast.